Monday, November 03, 2008

Election Prediction 2008

I've been saying for quite a few months that it was quite possible that McCain would hit about 45% of the vote on Election Day, and I think I'll just go with that as my Election Day prediction. And just to make it official, I'll give it as McCain 45%, Obama 52%; though those specific numbers were just pulled from my ass as I was typing. And it'll all go down in history as a decent-sized landslide. And while I used that 45% number repeatedly in comments at other blogs, I just thought I'd share with you excerpts from the two posts I used it on here.

From June 7, 2008:
The Year of Obama

But instead, we got Obama. And this is going to be a picnic with Obama, because he's the product we really wanted. He's the fuel efficient car during times of rising gas prices and the comfortable shorts during a hot summer. And while he's a great communicator who can sell his position well, it's not necessary; he sells himself. Because he's what we've wanted the whole time. And while he would have been great in 2000 or 2004, he's best of all in 2008 when everyone hates Bush. And it's obvious that even McCain realizes this. His ads emphasize how bad war is and how serious our problems are. As Carpetbagger mentioned, McCain used the word "change" 33 times in his greenscreen speech.
And these products aren't the same at all. McCain's trying to jam an obsolete PC inside a cool new iMac without understanding that it just won't fit at all. Particularly not when there's about 30% of the population that still demands the previous version of the obsolete PC. I'm honestly wondering if McCain's going to end up pissing off everyone. I should add to all this that I find it extremely unlikely that McCain could get less than 40% of the vote in November. But even 45% would be an Obama landslide, and I think that's quite possible.

From August 5, 2008:
Obama Doom Mongering

As we speak, many of McCain’s media admirers are already admitting on television that he’s running a dirty campaign that embarrasses them. It won’t be too much longer until they realize this is the “real” John McCain and that they had been duped. And I predicted this months ago. August is a long month in presidential politics, and if they’re already bad mouthing his attacks now, he’ll be totally screwed by October, which is when most voters really start paying attention.

And hey, we’ll never win everyone over. People just aren’t like that. Your crazy uncle will still keep accepting those insane Obama-bashing emails as gospel truth, and it’s almost impossible that McCain will get less than 40% of the electorate, and he’s likely to get more than 45%. But 45% is a trouncing in presidential politics. We don’t need to convince everyone. Karl Rove will never admit that Obama is in a far superior political position. In real life, bad guys rarely ever confess. McCain will not throw in the towel.

And just so you know, I realize that it ain't truly over until that fat lady sings. I just wanted to make sure that my prediction was on record, just so I can give the obligatory "I told you so" late Tuesday night; assuming my prediction is accurate. But of course, I was predicting this back in January and wouldn't have backed Obama if I didn't see this coming. I really do believe he's the best presidential candidate we've had in my lifetime, and I think he'll make the best president too.

But of course, his victory will really only be the beginning. The rabid McCain-Palin supporters never really gave a rat's ass about either of them, and were only using them to mask their hatred of Obama. And with an Obama victory, the real battle begins. Game on!

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