Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Senator Joe Spoiler

Congratulations to Joe Lieberman, for showing us all what a schmuck he is.

I am now open for taking symbolic wagers betting that Joe bows out of his Senate run within the week.  No money, please; as I already have far more than I can ever possibly spend.  But if anyone wants to put their reputation on the line, I’ll take that bet.  I’m not suggesting this is a sure-thing, but odds certainly do favor him dropping out.  And if he’s going to do it, it’ll be soon.

The only thing against is that, if Joe wasn’t such a schmuck that he’d know not to do this, he wouldn’t be in this position to begin with.  Not only would he never have started this independent run, but it’s likely that he wouldn’t have lost.  But I think that Joe’s going to be pressured to stop this and that he’ll wake-up and realize that this wasn’t all a dream and that he’s going down in flames.  Tough guy talk is all fine and dandy, but as we’ve seen in Iraq, it really can’t compete with reality.

It is entirely unlikely that Joe can win an independent run, and the worst thing that can happen for him is that he helps hand the seat to the Republicans.  Conventional Wisdom wanted to blame Lamont for that possibility before the primary, but now, everyone will see that as entirely Joe’s fault.  And a second loss to Lamont would also serve to grant him pariah status.  So in either case, anything short of a win in November will effectively end his political career.  And even a win in November won’t return him to his prior position as head GOP-appeaser.  

No matter what happens, Joe is damaged goods and his best option is to allow the Democratic Party to bribe him to drop out (I don’t mean with cash, btw).  That is his only good option, and I’m willing to put my reputation on the line saying that he’ll take it.  Sure, Joe’s acted like a schmuck.  But the implications of yesterday’s defeat are likely to be too great for even Joe to ignore.  He’s not a dumb man.  He just fell victim to Presidential Fever and acted under the delusions that we somehow wanted him for the top job.

3 comments:

Adam said...

Well, for Joe there was no downside to saying he'd run as an indepedent, especially given that he'd already promised it. If he'd delayed at all, it would have given more credence to the charges that he's a narcissist, etc. Whereas announcing and then reversing gives him the chance to get some kickbacks, and it doesn't set him back any more than it would if he just bowed out now. He's just maximizing his leverage.

Anonymous said...

What Lamont's crew now needs to do is float and idea to the Democrats who backed Lieberman: the idea of, "I support the man the Democratic Party of Connecticut supports and that man is Ned Lamont."

It gives politicians a graceful way to save face, which means EVERYTHING to a politician. It also gives them a handy way to turn the topic of conversation into "And with that business cleared up, let's crush the Republicans!" It gets more Dems in Lamont's corner, preventing a Lieberman spoiler. This is the correct move, I am sure of it.

-MH

Heraldblog said...

I predict the GOP will run a stronger candidate against Lamont, which will take more votes from Joe. But Joe will stick it out to the end. He's in deep denial, and we need to respect that.