Primary Prediction

Well, it's finally time to see if Hillary's Texas-Ohio firewall holds, and let me tell you, I honestly have no idea how this is going down. Even worse, I'm worried again. In fact, the one big bright spot in this is the last time I felt like this was on February 9, when I wrote "But if all goes according to plan, Barack will be winning several of the upcoming primaries and putting my worries to rest." Needless to say, Obama didn't just win several of the primaries, but ALL of them and won most of them BIGTIME.

But I don't know, I'm getting that worried feeling again all the same. In fact, I think a big part of this is that the Hillary supporters were really coming out in force, just as they're doing now. And they're sounding all cocky, with that "Woe is us, Obama's such a meanie" thing with all the Hillary people insisting that they were on the wall until some Obama meanie pushed them into the Hillary column. And that's the big thing I'm worried about. I don't know why Obama people have to be such dickheads, but I guess some of them can't help it.

In fact, one of my big surprises in all this is how all these Hillary people never noticed that there were meanies on our team. And dumb people and rude people. Where the hell have they been all this time? But I strongly suspect that they just never noticed it before because they liked it so much. And so when I was shaking my head at having to undo the damage done by rude people on my own team, these people were giggling with glee at the insults being directed against their common enemy.

And now they're starting to understand why that kind of thing isn't so great. One of the best ways to convince someone to firmly hold a position is to call them an assface for thinking that way. And that's one of the main reasons why the Rove "Divide & Conquer" exclusionist strategy isn't so great. Because it's premised on the idea that you've got to make some big, bad enemy to rally the troops behind. In battle that's easy, as you've just to point out how the enemy is about to rip your head off if you don't rip theirs off first. But in modern politics, it involves insulting and demonizing groups of people who are just as powerful as your own. And so the secret is knowing how to build your own team into a fury, but without insulting the other side into a fury. As we've seen over the past seven years, that strategy hasn't worked out that well for them.

But nobody ever listens to poor ol Biobrian (a vast overstatement, I know, but stay with me), and so the Obama people keep giving Hillary her best selling point: People hate her. I'm not sure what the great appeal to that is, but I suspect it's not entirely rational. And so here we are, on the verge of a big, big day that could really decide the fate of our entire planet, and I'm worried. And just like last time, I feel the worry is for nothing and things will turn out better than I fear.

But all the same, I'm worried. I seriously doubt Hillary can pull the big upset she needs, but the goalposts have moved significantly from back when Hillary announced these two states were her firewall. She had huge leads, and all Obama had to do was whittle them down. And here we are the night before the primary and he whittled those leads down to nothing. But as it goes, the media hates Hillary, but they let her set the stage all the same; and now it's not enough that she wins small. Barack is apparently supposed to win both Ohio and Texas, which she dominated just recently, or he'll be seriously undermined. I'm not sure how these rules work, but they're the ones we've got. And maybe it'll be to our advantage. Maybe he can pull out the big win in both states. I wouldn't call that impossible. I just don't know what to call it.

Anyway, well I'm voting tomorrow and hope to caucus. Wish me luck!