Well, shit. I know we should be happy that things went as well as they did yesterday in Texas and Ohio, seeing as how Obama made up HUGE ground and all but nullified Hillary's delegate advantage in her two "firewall" states. But dammit if I didn't really believe we'd be knocking her out last night. I was so depressed that I didn't bother posting about my cool caucus experience last night (as I found out, I'm in a HEAVY Obama precinct). Maybe I'll get to that tonight. But it was only expectations that got crushed yesterday; Obama did well.
The main negative from all this is that the herdlike media is now going to cover this as if this is some big shift in momentum for Hillary. Why? Because they're pack animals and can only base reality on what they believe the rest of the pack is doing. That's why momentum is so important to them; and by default, us. Sure, Obama did much better than he should have in Texas and Ohio, but because his momentum wasn't enough to overcome Hillary, it's now imagined that he's lost it and she's got it.
But if anything, I think the big loser from yesterday is the Momentum Meme. We keep being told which candidate has momentum, and when that momentum doesn’t win the day for the person who supposedly has it, we’re told this was a crushing defeat for them. Hell, Huckabee staked his entirely candidacy upon supposed momentum from Iowa (which the media keeps telling us is all-powerful). Had he not foolishly imagined that Iowa Momentum would carry him to eventual victory, I’m sure he wouldn’t have stayed in as long as he did. Once he believed he had a real shot, he just couldn’t let go. But he didn’t have momentum. He won Iowa because of natural advantages specific to Iowa and a few other states.
Obama’s had a similar problem, but in reverse. While I do actually think he has momentum, whenever his momentum isn’t able to overcome natural advantages that Hillary has in a particular state, it’s imagined that he’s lost the momentum. But he hasn’t. It’s just that his momentum wasn’t able to overcome her original lead. It’s like a car race where one car starts at lap 250 and the other at lap 1. Even if the second car is traveling twice as fast as the first, he might not be able to catch-up.
That’s my belief on what’s happening. She had huge leads in every state, and unfortunately for him, his extra velocity wasn’t enough to pass her in some of them. But this isn’t a shift in momentum. It wasn’t supposed to be close in Ohio or Texas to begin with. It was only his momentum that made it close. In Texas and Ohio, she won her "base" and he won his. This wasn't a shift in momentum. The big problem was that her base was naturally bigger in these two states than his was. But that was due to particular demographics in these two states; not momentum.
The Big Mo came from his ability to come from behind in both states, as he has done throughout the campaign. But just because you don't have enough Mo to win a particular race doesn't mean you don't have it. And with the upcoming races getting back to Obama's turf, we'll have a better idea if she actually has any Mo, or if the Obama train is still rolling full steam. I predict that's what the herd will be telling us after big wins in WY and MS.
Oh, and if you haven't already today: Make sure to give Obama at least $10 right now. I just gave a little more than that, and trust me, it’s the most therapeutic way to get rid of the sting of not having ended this last night. You’ll feel much better and it's the best way you can help him today.