Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Big MoBama

Well, shit. I know we should be happy that things went as well as they did yesterday in Texas and Ohio, seeing as how Obama made up HUGE ground and all but nullified Hillary's delegate advantage in her two "firewall" states. But dammit if I didn't really believe we'd be knocking her out last night. I was so depressed that I didn't bother posting about my cool caucus experience last night (as I found out, I'm in a HEAVY Obama precinct). Maybe I'll get to that tonight. But it was only expectations that got crushed yesterday; Obama did well.

The main negative from all this is that the herdlike media is now going to cover this as if this is some big shift in momentum for Hillary. Why? Because they're pack animals and can only base reality on what they believe the rest of the pack is doing. That's why momentum is so important to them; and by default, us. Sure, Obama did much better than he should have in Texas and Ohio, but because his momentum wasn't enough to overcome Hillary, it's now imagined that he's lost it and she's got it.

But if anything, I think the big loser from yesterday is the Momentum Meme. We keep being told which candidate has momentum, and when that momentum doesn’t win the day for the person who supposedly has it, we’re told this was a crushing defeat for them. Hell, Huckabee staked his entirely candidacy upon supposed momentum from Iowa (which the media keeps telling us is all-powerful). Had he not foolishly imagined that Iowa Momentum would carry him to eventual victory, I’m sure he wouldn’t have stayed in as long as he did. Once he believed he had a real shot, he just couldn’t let go. But he didn’t have momentum. He won Iowa because of natural advantages specific to Iowa and a few other states.

Obama’s had a similar problem, but in reverse. While I do actually think he has momentum, whenever his momentum isn’t able to overcome natural advantages that Hillary has in a particular state, it’s imagined that he’s lost the momentum. But he hasn’t. It’s just that his momentum wasn’t able to overcome her original lead. It’s like a car race where one car starts at lap 250 and the other at lap 1. Even if the second car is traveling twice as fast as the first, he might not be able to catch-up.

That’s my belief on what’s happening. She had huge leads in every state, and unfortunately for him, his extra velocity wasn’t enough to pass her in some of them. But this isn’t a shift in momentum. It wasn’t supposed to be close in Ohio or Texas to begin with. It was only his momentum that made it close. In Texas and Ohio, she won her "base" and he won his. This wasn't a shift in momentum. The big problem was that her base was naturally bigger in these two states than his was. But that was due to particular demographics in these two states; not momentum.

The Big Mo came from his ability to come from behind in both states, as he has done throughout the campaign. But just because you don't have enough Mo to win a particular race doesn't mean you don't have it. And with the upcoming races getting back to Obama's turf, we'll have a better idea if she actually has any Mo, or if the Obama train is still rolling full steam. I predict that's what the herd will be telling us after big wins in WY and MS.


Oh, and if you haven't already today: Make sure to give Obama at least $10 right now. I just gave a little more than that, and trust me, it’s the most therapeutic way to get rid of the sting of not having ended this last night. You’ll feel much better and it's the best way you can help him today.

17 comments:

John of the Dead said...

So, Doc, did you manage to get elected to the county convention? Being one of the few people willing to stand outside in the 40-degree, breezy night (yes, the county commissioners had nine precints, each with over 100 caucusers, huddle in a church parking lot; the parking lot of this medium-sized church was a mad-house, with over 1,000 people crowded together trying to dodge cars), I stuck around for the whole shebang. Pretty much everyone who stayed was elected as a delegate to the county convention at the end of March. So hey, *I* might eventually get to be a delegate to the national convention. If nothing else, I've taken the first step. So that's neat.

A said...

On the other hand, last night may have let off a lot of the pressure building up in the Clinton-supporter camp last month based on the feeling that they never really got a fair shot at Obama after Feb 5th. I think that's what a lot of the "media inauguration" talk was really about. Now that they've taken a good swing at him, I think that a lot of the air goes out of that particular bubble. (Though I'm sure a lot of people over at TalkLeft might disagree... um, for whatever that's worth.)

The important news today is that Dean pretty much drew the line in the sand on Florida and Michigan, and the Florida governor backtracked on a new primary at the same time. That's a big deal. Dean pretty much said it's re-do or no deal, but a re-do means coming up with $18M for a new primary, and it's not clear where that money would come from.

Doctor Biobrain said...

No John, I didn't stick around. I kind of wished I had, but think it would have been at least another half hour after I signed in before everyone else signed in for Obama; and probably longer. Plus, my wife left earlier and had my coat in the car, so I was getting cold waiting around in the parking lot (luckily, it wasn't no 40 degrees here). I signed up to be a county delegate, but don't know if they needed me. I just wanted to make sure that they had enough.

But I trusted the Obama people running things, and I'm in such a heavy Obama area that I wasn't too worried about things. But still, had I brought a coat and a book, I would have stuck around. I honestly had no idea it'd be that bad. But it would have been cool to have gone to the county convention. I should have waited.

Doctor Biobrain said...

A - I honestly think we should have a benefit concert to raise money for new primaries. We could get Bono, Springsteen, and a bunch others together for a big show. We could even threaten a Barbara Streisand, Rosie O'Donnell duet at the end if we didn't raise enough. The TV rights alone should be enough to pay for the primaries. And any left over money could go to some good cause or something. (Might I recommend the Doctor Biobrain Children's Fund and Buffet. They do great work and don't fill you up like some chinese places.)

I've suggested that idea at a few other blogs, but nobody seems to be for it. I think it's a pretty good idea, and I'm not even a big fan of Bono or The Boss. Maybe I should mention it to Dean next time we have lunch.

A said...

I'm actually not in favor of new primaries at this point. It sucks, but the fact of the matter is that (a) they should have known better -- this took no one by surprise; (b) they've been dragging their feet on this -- there should have a revote a month ago, not a call to friggin' seat the delegations all for Hillary (no, that's not disenfranchisin); and (c) the "it's unfair" argument now cuts both ways -- Obama got backed into a corner as "against" the FL and MI voters, and that'll hurt him if there was to be a re-vote.

He was put in a position where he could either (1) follow the rules and get lambasted in both states (and I'm quite certain that if there was a re-vote at this point, the Clinton campaign in both states would be based around "Obama tried to steal your votes!") (2) ask for a change at the cost of a ton of delegates.

That's not a fair choice. He never had the opportunity to make a real decision about this, and now it's a no-win situation.

John of the Dead said...

The one valid argument I've heard in favor of a re-vote is that the primary election date change was forced by a Republican state legislature and governor. Why should the Republican party be allowed to force the Democratic party to disenfranchise the states? That's the worst part of the whole affair in my mind. (Well, it *was* the worst, until Clinton started claiming she "won" an election in which she was the only candidate. Ahem.)

Doctor Biobrain said...

John - I'm no expert on this, but I believe that was only the case in Florida, and even then, the Democrats there voted for it unanimously. Of course, it was also appparently tied into some other election bill that they wanted passed, but it's not like they put up some big fight about it. And I believe the Republicans got in trouble for it too, the difference being that the RNC didn't bring down the hammer nearly as hard as the DNC did; with them only losing half their delegates, instead of all of them. But again, I'm no expert on this and that's just based upon what I've picked-up from various people. Unfortunately, the people who really seem to know this stuff generally only mention the part of the story that helps their side, so it's kind of hard to piece it all together and determine who's really telling the whole truth.

But as far as Michigan is concerned, I believe that the Democrats are entirely to blame for it. But all the same, I support a re-do for both. It might not favor Obama, due to all the bad blood that's spilled since then, but it still makes sense. Besides, Obama's lead is enough that I think this could help him more than hurt him. It's unlikely that Hillary will do so well that she'll get a huge delegate gain, and so this just helps Obama get a little closer to securing the nomination.

Anonymous said...

Biobrain. Your an idiot

John of the Dead said...

Anonymous, if you wish to insult someone's intelligence, it helps to avoid ignorant grammatical errors. I'm fairly certain you meant to use the contraction "you're," short for "you are." Unless you really *did* mean to use the possessive "your," indicating that the good Doctor is in possession of an idiot. Oh, wait, that's it! *You* are Doctor Biobrain's personal idiot. Ah, now I understand. Sorry for interrupting.

And Doc, I only have a passing familiarity with the history surrounding the FL & MI issue. It's my feeling that of all the underhanded tactics thus far, pushing to seat MI delegates is the worst. Winning by 10 points against "Uncommitted" is not, in my mind, a clear mandate.

However, I'll reiterate my previous opinion: these attacks are ultimately good for Obama. They allow his to hone his skills at deflecting the inevitable Republican attacks. To be honest, if he can't deal with these now, he certainly can't handle those to come in October.

Anonymous said...

I stand corrected Dr. Biobrain You are an idiot. John of the dead, your just a fag who wants to have sex with an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Oh and BTW please John and Dr. Biobrain stop fantasizing about Obama in your sleep, he is married you do realize

John of the Dead said...

Tsk, tsk. After being corrected, you commit the same mistake. Unless, of course, you are saying that I am in possession of a fag. You *really* need to work on this. How will anyone take your debating positions seriously with such poor spelling and grammar?

Anonymous said...

Fine john you have made your point, my grammer is bad. However the only people who correct another persons grammer are either women or gay men; hence the comment. As far as the brain being an idiot I stand behind that because of this stupid ass blog. If you are going to support Obama, please come up with something credible, but to come up with this shit that his momentum was not fast enough sounds like you are making excuses and that is not good for the Obama campaign. Your better off saying you are in love with the man; at least others will know that is true. So analyze my response for grammatics John you wanna be english expert and Biobrain try not to bring us down to your idiotic level.

John of the Dead said...

"Fine”

Add a comma.

“… john”

Capitalize “John” and add a comma.

“… you have made your point, my grammer is bad."

The comma should be either a period or, preferably, a semi-colon. Proper spelling is “grammar.”

"However"

Add a comma.

"... the only people who correct another persons grammer are either women or gay men; hence the comment."

Should be possessive form of person: "person's." Also, should be a comma, not a semi-colon. Again, “grammar.”

"As far as the brain being an idiot"

Add a comma.

"... I stand behind that because of this stupid ass blog."

Hyphenate compound adjectives, such as "stupid-ass."

"If you are going to support Obama, please come up with something credible, but to come up with this shit that his momentum was not fast enough sounds like you are making excuses and that is not good for the Obama campaign."

Run-on sentence. This would be better phrased as three separate sentences.

"Your better off saying you are in love with the man; at least others will know that is true."

Again, use the contraction, "you're," when you mean "you are." However, kudos for the proper use of the semi-colon!

"So analyze my response for grammatics John you wanna be english expert and Biobrain try not to bring us down to your idiotic level."

Another run-on sentence. This would also be better phrased as three sentences, or perhaps one compound sentence and one simple sentence. Use “grammar” instead of “grammatics.” Capitalize “English.” I would recommend replacing “wanna” with “want to,” but this is gaining acceptance as a new contraction. It should be avoided in formal settings, but is acceptable in casual correspondence.

Anonymous said...

Tu-shea

Doctor Biobrain said...

Anon - What on earth are you talking about? Who was making excuses for Obama? The fact of the matter is that Hillary was supposed to do really well in Ohio and Texas, and yet it looks like she barely got any delegates for all her effort. This was Hillary's territory and the best she could do was to prevent herself from being completely knocked out of the race. And while she succeeded at that, she did little else.

But being a troll who imagines that the grammatically silly "Your an idiot" is somehow an effective argument, I'm guessing I just wasted the time it took me to respond. But all the same, it's always a sign that you've hit the bigtime when you get your own troll. So thanks for commenting, I really appreciate it and hope I won't let you down.

Anonymous said...

Biobrain. You big stud, please do not be mad at me. Sorry I did not meet up with you in the men's bathroom at Waffle House but I got sidetracked. I long for your 1 inch penus penetrating deep. Let's make amends. How bout dinner at my house, followed by some rough fucking. Please forgive me. I love you

Ramon