President Barack Obama's winning coalition from 2008 has crumbled and his core backers are dispirited. It's now Republicans who stand to benefit from an electorate that's again craving change.Reading that, I immediately found the whole thing to be incredibly unlikely. Would there be some Obama voters who switch sides? Of course. Part of his vote came from independents who weren't loyal to Democrats, and even if they like Obama doesn't necessarily mean they still like Democrats. But the idea that lots of Obama people are flocking to the GOP seemed extremely dubious.
Nearly two years after putting Obama in the White House, one-quarter of those who voted for the Democrat are defecting to the GOP or considering voting against the party in power this fall.
And I immediately identified the phrase "or considering voting against" as being fairly iffy and was hoping they'd give us the act4a3 details to this poll.
The Actual Results
And sure enough, the spin on this poll is a big pile of garbage. After reading a bunch about how Obama is losing his coalition, we get the actual results:
_76 percent of Obama voters say they will support the Democrat in their House district, while 8 percent plan to back the Republican and the rest are undecided.Uhh, what? 76% of Obama supporters say they'll vore for their Dem, while only 71% of McCain supporters say they'll vote for their Republican. Sounds like Obama's doing better than the Republicans.
_71 percent of McCain voters say they will vote for the Republican in their House district, while 9 percent plan to get behind Democrats and 20 percent haven't chosen a candidate.
Only 8% of Obama supporters are switching sides, while 9% of McCain supporters are switching sides. This is evidence that Obama supporters are "defecting to the GOP"??
And as you can see, the iffy "or considering voting against" line the article rested upon is actually that the people are undecided. Yes, it can be argued that they're considering it, seeing as how they're not decided. But those phrases don't really have the same connatation. And as your spidey math skills should tell you, 15% of undecided Obama supporters is better than 20% of undecided McCain supporters.
In other words, the entire article is a crock of shit. Obama's coalition is actually better than McCain's; at least according to this poll. And only 11% of those who didn't say they'd vote for the Democrat thinks that Republicans will do a better job. Looks like the only thing crumbling here is the Associated Press's integrity.
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This article could just as easily have been called "Poll: Many McCain 2008 Supporters Defecting to the Democrats", and been about how the Republican coalition is crumbling because their party is stark raving mad. But I guess that doesn't fit the AP's narrative about Obama.
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